A few good tips can go a long way towards finding good horse racing bets and no where is that more valuable than in handicapping route races. It’s all about distance as the races get longer. The best way to find the right horse to bet on in a long race is to know which horses have won at that distance before or to know which horses have the breeding to go the distance.
Route races are races that are contested over a mile or more. Sprint races are races of less than a mile. The longer the race the more class and breeding weigh in and the less speed has to do with the final result. This is in line with the “dosage” theory, invented by Dr. Steven A. Roman, Ph.D. that is often used to determine if a horse has the right pedigree to go the distance in such famous races as the Kentucky Derby.
While handicapping the Derby dato carrera americana and picking the winner is exciting, dosage may be used in many races and is especially useful in races over a mile and a quarter. The longer route races are often called classic races and the right pedigree combination of important sires, known as “chefs de races,” can produce a horse with a huge advantage.
Therefore, to find the contenders in the Kentucky Derby or any classic distance races, start with a sire guide, or use the distance ratings that are found in the past performances or racing form guide. Starting with the distance is the first place to begin when handicapping long races because no matter how speedy or classy the horse, if it can’t get the distance, as they say, it can’t win the race.
Once you’ve established a list of the horses in the race who can actually win at the distance you’ll find you’ve usually narrowed down the field. This is especially true in races for younger horses. The owners and trainers of younger horses often know their horse isn’t bred to go the distance, but will often enter their runner in a race that is too long and then hope that their horse can actually win at the distance. It does happen, but very rarely.
Once the horses are older you’ll find less of this because experience has shown that the horse has limitations and most good trainers won’t enter an older horse in a race it can’t win. For that reason, using distance as an elimination factor works much better in races for younger horses. Once you have your list of possible winners, the next step is to find one wit